Notes on speculation, risk, and process.
Original essays on the discipline behind better speculative decisions.
What 'Return on Wager' Actually Measures
ROI is the wrong yardstick for speculative decisions. Return on Wager treats each wager as a portfolio allocation.
Why Fractional Kelly Beats Gut Feel
Position sizing eats edge. Even modest edges evaporate when stakes are emotional, not mathematical.
The Decision Journal Is the Edge
Writing down your thesis before you act is the single highest-ROI habit in speculation.
Implied Probability: A Working Cheatsheet
American odds to implied probability in your head, in under 10 seconds.
Treating Options Like Sports Bets (And Why That's Fine)
Defined-risk options trades and sports bets share more DNA than either crowd admits.
Prediction Markets: A Speculator's Field Guide
Where prediction markets reliably outprice traditional bookmakers, and where they don't.
A Working Tilt Protocol
Three losses in a row is not a signal to bet bigger. Here's a protocol that survives contact with emotion.
Expected Value vs Variance, In Plain English
Positive EV doesn't mean you'll make money this year. It means you should keep doing it.
Concentration Is the Hidden Speculation Killer
Six different bets on the same NFL Sunday is one bet, not six.
Edges Die. Recognize It Before the Market Does.
Every edge eventually decays. Holding on too long is more expensive than missing the next one.