The Decision Journal Is the Edge
Writing down your thesis before you act is the single highest-ROI habit in speculation.
Annie Duke calls it 'resulting': judging the quality of a decision by its outcome. It is the most common cognitive error in speculation, and it is fatal. You won on a long shot? Doesn't mean you should take more long shots. You lost on a coin flip? Doesn't mean the coin flip was wrong.
The only way to separate decision quality from outcome luck is to record what you thought *before* the outcome was known. That is a decision journal.
A usable journal entry includes: the thesis in one sentence, the entry price or odds, the size relative to bankroll, the catalyst you are waiting for, and what would falsify the thesis. After the position resolves, you write the postmortem: was the outcome the result of the thesis playing out, or did you get lucky / unlucky?
Review your journal monthly. You will find patterns. You always lose on Friday nights. You always size up after a win. You always abandon theses 24 hours early. These patterns are invisible without the journal, and unfixable until they are visible.
ROW's Postmortem feature is a forced version of this practice. Every resolved entry prompts you to write down what actually happened, with the original thesis still visible.